On Risk Assessment

Failure to perform an accurate, reality-based risk assessment is one of the most common mistakes people make. Biases of all kinds get in the way, and lead people down a path of distraction, impracticality and obliviousness. Impulsive, bad decision making instead of thoughtful, methodical planning.

What is risk assessment? It's the process of identifying and prioritizing risks.

On a more concrete level, you step back and ask yourself a few questions:

• What am I trying to do?
• What could break/go wrong/interfere?
• How severe would it be?
• How likely is it to happen?

For an example, let's look at a fairly common activity -- commuting in your vehicle. Let's outline some common risks:

• Motor vehicle accident
• Dead battery 
• Run out of gas
• Car jacking attempt
• Flat tire
• Vehicle immobilized due to conditions (bad weather, impassible road conditions)
• Attacked by a mob of rioters or crazy bikers

Once we have our risks identified, we want to identify the big ones. Do that by triangulating the magnitude of the impact (will get you killed vs. inconvenience) and the likelihood of the risk occurring (common vs. very rare).

At that point, you have your risk assessment in hand.

Now, you can get to work on putting controls and plans into place to avoid or at least mitigate the effects of those risks should they occur. Your most severe / most probable risks should take precedence, but don't ignore the others.

These controls can take the form of activities or habits that you perform -- for example, always filling up your tank when you get below 1/2. Or they can take the form of physical preparations and gear--in the commuting example, that would mean carrying jumper cables, a jack and spare tire, gas can, trauma kit and so on. 

A few other examples of some common activities, risks and controls:

Task: Family security and safety at home

Risks and controls:

• Home invasion / armed robbery
• Sturdy doors and locks, and the habit of always locking the doors
• Alarm system (and habit of using it)
• Dog
• Home defense guns (accessible quickly, and training / mindset to use)
• Family plan
• Fire
• Smoke alarm
• Fire extinguisher
• Family plan / evac routes
• Homeowner's / renter's insurance
• Off-site backups of important documents / data
• Household accident
• First aid kit and training
• Emergency contact numbers
• Family plan
• Natural disaster
• Designated safe room
• Fire extinguisher
• Comms gear (back up cell phone, weather radio, HAM radio if licensed)
• Stored food and water
• Family plan and evac practice
• Bug out bags aka 72 hour kits and other survival supplies
• Evac routes and destination planned

Task: Family security and safety outside the home

• Armed attacker(s) (robbery, active shooter, kidnapping attempt, road rage, etc.)
• Concealed carry license and handgun (carried regularly)
• Firearms training
• Self defense training
• Anti-kidnapping / escape training for family
• Trauma kit, flashlight, knife and other tools
• Practice situational awareness
• Avoid high threat areas and situations
• Family plan
• Vehicle accident
• Trauma kit and training
• Self-extraction tools within arms reach
• Drive defensively and avoid driving in terrible conditions
• Buy vehicles with good safety ratings / keep them in good condition
• Natural disaster
• Get home bags and supplies in vehicles and/or some basics in EDC gear
• Situational awareness
• Communications gear
• Family plan, rendezvous points and evac plans

Task: Provide for family financially

• Job Loss / loss of income (normal economy)
• 3 month emergency fund
• Both spouses work (or are able to)
• Maintain network of business contacts
• Multiple income streams
• Alternate skills
• Unemployment insurance
• Live within means and minimize debt
• Food storage and other stores at home
• Economic crash / banking system collapse
• Cash on hand
• Precious metal holdings / other 'tangible' investments
• Food storage
• Food production ability
• Off-grid capabilities (power, water, etc.)
• Ability to switch to 'barter' economy -- valued skills or production ability
• Health problem / inability to work
• Emergency fund and savings
• Health insurance
• Disability insurance
• Both spouses work (or are able to)
• Passive income streams
• Live within means and minimize debt

You'll note that many of the "controls" are good for more than one risk -- those are smart ones to focus on.

You can get more specific or less specific than the risks above; focus on a very specific task or mission, for example. Here's another:

Task: Travel from home to bug out/evac location during time of emergency

• Vehicle becomes stranded or stuck (congestion, road conditions, bad weather, EMP)
• Travel in a group of 2+ vehicles
• Drive 4x4s with off-road tires, winch and tow straps (less likely to get stuck)
• Alternate routes planned (avoid getting stuck)
• Maintain situational awareness
• Alternate transportation (dirt bike and ATVs)
• Have on-foot routes planned and packs for the journey
• Bridge over river is impassible
• Alternate routes planned (alternate bridge 15 miles away)
• Plan to leave vehicles and float / swim across river
• One vehicle to have inflatable raft in case of crossing
• Attacked en route to location
• Travel in group of 2+ vehicles
• Take tactical driving course
• Training and response plan (e.g., drive through at high speed if possible, else bail out from vehicles and engage)
• Weapons and support gear in vehicles
• On-foot routes planned / bags for the journey in case vehicles must be ditched or become inoperable
• Communications gear to call for support
• Trauma kits
• Plan routes through decent areas, including alternate routes
• Situational awareness

Avoid the temptation to focus purely on extreme impact events that have an extremely low likelihood of happening. Our minds have a tendency to focus on those big, scary things and artificially inflate their perceived likelihood of happening--that one in a billion event can become a perceived near certainty overnight. Devoting too much time and resources to any one extreme long shot event can be unbalancing, unhealthy and counterproductive. 

There is also the idea of "risk acceptance," which is simply recognizing the risk exists but not taking any actions to control or mitigate that risk. You may choose not to take action because of cost, resources, laziness, acceptance of impact should the risk occur or your judgment on how likely the risk is to occur. 

People do the risk acceptance math all the time, whether consciously or not. They live in hurricane zones but have zero in the way of emergency supplies, they say things like "if the crap hits the fan, I guess I will just die," or maybe they'd just rather spend their time and resources on fun and leisure. To each their own.

Corporate, government and military planning is full of risk assessment -- it's used by business execs planning expansion into new regions, NASA for planning missions into space, and spec ops units gearing up for a direct action raid against a terrorist cell. 

Think through the eventualities, plan and prepare for the bad things that can happen.

Surviving a Government Debt Crisis

Introduction / The Greeks - Summer of 2015

The Greek government has been teetering on the brink for a while now, and we'll find out within the next few days what direction the country is going to head -- slash spending and take more bailout money or drive themselves further down the path of economic ruin.

First up, Greece is only a very small part of the world's economy (44th highest GDP), and investors have had a long period of advanced warning to pull money out or otherwise game plan for a government collapse. At this point, the risk of a Greek government default and subsequent troubles has been largely priced into the market. Thus, there is little risk of a Greek default triggering economic meltdowns across the world. Some bad days on the market, yes, but nothing apocalyptic.

It is, though, instructive to watch how events have led up to the current situation and watch how they will unfold in the next few weeks. Government defaults follow similar progression and if you know the signs and eventual progression, you can prepare for them that much better.

Why you shouldn't dismiss bugging out

Some posts/comments over on TSLRF inspired me to write out some thoughts on the oft-misunderstood survival tactic of bugging out.

Folks very often say some variety of "I'd never leave my home to become a refugee. I've got food, water, tools and guns here--why would I leave that all behind? If push comes to shove, I'll fight it out here."

Sure, in some situations, sheltering in place is the best bet. But in other instances, it isn't. Having "bugging in" as your one an only crap-hit-the-fan response plan is not particularly prudent.

Let's consider a few examples of when you'd need to bug out--not an exhaustive list, but a few to get the point across.

Natural Disaster

Clip above is from the 2011 tsunami in Japan, but there are countless examples from recent memory--Typhoon Haiyan just ravaged the Philipines.

Wind, water, fire and moving earth can smash your home and belongings to pieces in a matter of seconds...you versus the fury of Mother Nature isn't much of a fight. Good luck staying put.

You might have plenty of advanced warning or you might get only a few seconds to grab and run.

Familiar stories from survivors in the Philippines

Whole cities were leveled by Typhoon Haiyan that recently hit the Philippines - devastation being described as apocalyptic. For those of us who pay special attention to these things, the descriptions and accounts coming from the survivors sound all too familiar.

There are the shortages--clean water, food, shelter and medical supplies. Relief from government forces has been slow to come. No matter how well organized the relief forces are, rebuilding a broken supply chain and mobilizing vast amounts of resources takes time.

Dave Canterbury on Kit Mentality

While focused on surviving in the bush, Dave's advice and principles can be applied to building a kit for any environment. Great stuff.

Building a Financial Safety Net, Part 1: Getting Started

Much of survivalism and a prepared lifestyle involves having ample reserves in place to weather the tough times. It's the case of the grasshopper and the ant - we are the ant, preparing for winter before it comes.

We focus on having food stored, stockpiles of ammo, spare parts and redundant gear, but far too often we ignore the financial side of things. Having a reserve of money for unexpected events and tough times is a wise, common-sense goal that virtually every financial expert recommends working towards.

Reader Brainstorm: Keeping Survivalism Fun

Let's face it: being a survivalist type isn't always easy. Prepared, provident living is not exactly mainstream behavior this day; throw in a healthy measure of libertarianism, pro-2A, traditional family values and a generally independent/self-sufficient outlook and you can find yourself on the fringe pretty quickly.

Throw in the desire to maintain some level of operational security/low profile, and you end up not being able to talk to the average acquaintance about a lot of what you do in your spare time.

Add in the potential for criticism, mockery, teasing or nagging from those who are within the "circle of trust" and it can become even tougher. When your spouse, children or friends think you're foolish/crazy/paranoid, it can become even harder to stay motivated.

Sprinkle in the tendency for many in survival sphere to be negative, whiny, nit picky and close minded and things can get even tougher. If you're not doing things their way, you're doing it wrong. If you're using product X instead of product Y, you've made a grave mistake and will surely die. There's lots of bickering, lots of self-experts proclaiming their way above all others, and a heavy dose negativity and general hating at times.

The point is this: there are many forces conspiring to get you discouraged, depressed and make survivalism un-fun.

Here at T-Blog, we try to have fun with survivalism, not take ourselves too seriously and not focus on the doom, gloom and negativity in the world.

I'm interested to hear from the T-Blog tribe on this though: what do you do to keep survivalism fun while staying positive and energized?

FerFal on Preparing for an Economic Crisis

Thanks to Ryan at TSLRF for pointing this one out.

Great basic overview from FerFal r.e. steps to take to prepare for an economic collapse - legitimate good advice.

Like we discussed here a while back, FerFal talks about the importance of having cash on hand in a situation like this. Most currencies will take a while to collapse - or at least for the market to realize that they have collapsed - but banking systems collapse much faster. In that initial "gap" period, as FerFal says, cash is king.

This is what happens in the real world...not an immediate descent to Mad Max anarchy, but freezing of assets, inaccessibility of banking and cash, etc.

Definitely worth a watch.

To FerFal's advice, I would also add that, eventually, you consider having some cash in alternate currencies. BitCoin is getting a lot of press these days and the value has sky rocketed since the beginning of the year. Worth a look. If you live near a border or have family in an international country, it'd be prudent to have some of that currency around. A little bit of diversification is a good thing, amigos.

Where did you start preparing?

Let's face it - most of us consciously start down the preparedness path at some point. Whether it's stocking up on some extra food and water, putting together a bug out bag, buying a home defense gun or something as simple as starting to carry a pocket knife--you start gotta somewhere.

Personally, I started off more down the every day carry route, while I was on a full-time mission for the LDS church. I worked in New Jersey--in such glamorous locales as Newark, Paterson and Jersey City. I was out walking around for 12 hours a day - lots of time in projects and all sorts of interesting places. I had a shoulder bag to carry books and handouts in, and it wasn't too long before I started adding some basics to it to make life easier. A good water bottle, a flashlight, little first aid kit, spare cash and so on. I bought a decent pocket knife and started carrying that and was surprised at how handy it was. And so on.

That was probably my first real, conscious trip down the path. I had always kind of been of that mindset--Alas, Babylon and the Road Warrior were favorites of mine as a teenager--but that was really where I started taking action.

That's probably why I recommend most people start with every day carry stuff. It's practical, it's going to get used, it's going to be with you in most emergencies and it's not going to sit in a closet. If you don't have those basics squared away, why would you put resources into putting together a bug out bag?

It's also why I recommend quality stuff--I still have almost all of the items I scrimped and saved for at that time, and it all still works. Mountainsmith Rocket, Streamlight flashlight, Leatherman Squirt, Kershaw pocket knife. It's mostly worn and most serves backup duty, but it all still works totally well.

Anyways, interested to hear from you guys and gals--let's get nostalgic. What did you start with?

From the Archives: The Doorstep Problem

TEOTWAWKI Blog now has over 1000 posts, since our beginning back in 2007 - that's a lot of reading, about a broad array of apocalyptic topics. You can navigate through old posts using the search function, post labels, navigating by month or by using the navigation buttons above.

Inspired by the drama on last night's episode of the Walking Dead, here's an old-but-goody from the archives talking about the dilemma of friends & family showing up on your doorstep after troubles have hit. I've gone through and added a bit here and there to help get across some of the points - so we'll call this a director's cut.

"If the world ends, I'm coming to your place!"

We've probably all heard some variation of the above before. Family and friends who plan to show up on your doorstep when the stuff splatters on the fan. I like to call this the "doorstep problem."

In some ways, I suppose having this problem is a compliment--family/friends recognize that we're prepared, they aren't, and they'll need to rely on you in a bad situation. But really, how to respond to this? Let them use up your limited supplies, eat you out of house and home? Turn them away?

Well, we're all about being prepared before trouble hits, so the doorstep problem something we need to think through and prepare before hard times. If TSHTF and your lazy, unprepared extended family member X shows up on your doorstep, you should have your course of action thought through and prepared beforehand.

The way I see it, there are three possible strategies for address the doorstep problem: leave them hanging, plan to support them or convert them to the survivalist way.

Long Term Survival: Shelter

If your home or retreat is compromised in a long term collapse scenario, what are your options for shelter? A poncho shelter is only going to work for so long, and a cheap family tent is probably not going to make it through more than a storm or two. If it's a week or so in the summer, no big deal - but what if weeks turn into months and on into years?

The best option is to have friends or family with backup locations of their own, that are equally viable for long term survival. So, say your place gets destroyed in the initial event, but Uncle Bob's farm is a hundred miles away, and has plenty of extra room, water and food, too. Then you just need to get yourself to Uncle Bob's place and you're good to go. 

Even if you don't have a circle of like-minded survivalist type friends/family in the region, it's good to know have an idea of where you could turn for a safe place to sleep and regroup, even if just for a short while. We have friends who lost their home in a tornado a few years back, and they ended up living with some family friends for a few weeks while they located a new place to live and regrouped from the devastation caused by the storm. It never hurts to have these conversations beforehand - and if you're the prepared party, extending an invite to trusted but potentially less prepare parties can be wise.

"Fireteam" specialization for groups

The fireteam is the basic element of most modern fighting forces. In the U.S. military, it's a four soldier group; individual roles vary a bit depending on the branch, but they are fairly similar. As an example, in a Striker brigade company, a fireteam consists of:

• Team Leader - Equipped with an M4
• Automatic Rifleman - Equipped with and M249 SAW
• Grenadier - Equipped with an M4 + M203 grenade launcher
• Designated Marksman or Anti-Armor Specialist

Now the point here is not to suggest that a survival group must have a guy with a grenade launcher and another with a belt-fed machine gun, but rather that some diversification of equipment can be a good thing. 

While the fireteam above has a general overlap in ammunition and magazines (minus a specialty rifle the DM may be carrying), each individual member has capabilities that aren't covered by the others - you've got a grenade launcher for blowing stuff up, a machine gun and a long range rifle. If all were carrying M4s, there'd be less they could do.

In most combat units, you won't find everyone with the exact same skill set and carrying the exact same loadout, and that's on purpose. There are different roles that need to be performed and different gear that needs to be carried.

In survival circles, we often focus on standardization - group standard weapons, standardized packing lists, cookie cutter kind of stuff. And while standardization certainly has its place, it can get in the way and end up limiting overall capabilities.

So, when planning for your family or a larger group, figure out essential capabilities that you need to have, and also gear that is important, but doesn't make sense for every person to carry. Better to have one person carry an axe, another carry a shovel and a third carry a bucksaw than have three axes or three shovels. Or one person with a Ham radio and solar panel, another with a large medical kit, and another with a trapping/fishing kit, then three people with Ham radios or big medical kits.

Another example: if a four person group decided on the AR-15 as their main weapons platform, perhaps two would carry standard ARs plus .22lr conversion kits, one could carry a machine gun-barrel steel AR and higher capacity magazines for suppressive fire and a fourth would carry an AR set up for longer range - a SPR or scoped .300 BLK. Just an example--you could come up with endless combinations--but you can see the different capabilities provided, while still maintaining a high degree of cross compatibility.

In the Wolf family, my wife and I have a some items that are the same between our kits, and some that are different. I carry more of the defensive stuff, while she carries more of the kid support stuff. I carry a shovel, she carries the folding saw. Nothing high speed about diapers, but common sense.

Not too complex at work here, but something that would require a bit of forethought and coordination between group members. If you've got a special skill area, that will inform specialty gear that you carry, or you just may be carrying a general use item so that someone else doesn't have to.

Interested to hear your thoughts, plans and experiences on this.

5 Lessons from the Panic of 2012

The gun control madness has been frustrating for most of us, but I think there are some helpful observations we can extrapolate from the whole mess.

This time around, we're seeing panic buying of guns, magazines and ammunition. Now, extend that to the initial hours/days after a wide scale collapse scenario, when you have people running out and buying anything and everything under the sun. Food. Water. Batteries. Tools. Camping gear. Everything.

Using the current panic buying environment as a case study, here are a few things you can expect to see:

#1. Have what you need on hand:

Pretty self explanatory. You don't want to be in the situation where you're desperate to acquire some needed  piece of kit in the eleventh hour...expect to go without or pay exorbitant amounts to acquire it. You knew that tomorrow was the day before Armageddon, what would you be running to the store for? If that list is a very long one, or full of "must haves," then you need to get to work! If you're well squared away, any last minute purchasing may be to add some "nice to haves" or purchase some trade stock for the future--or completely unnecessary.

#2. Expect a limited window of opportunity: 

If you're paying attention and act quickly, you can probably beat some of the masses to the purchase. Boyd's OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act) is helpful here. You've got to be faster at getting through your decision loop than the masses--get in while everyone is still trying to process the consequences. If you hesitate, play "wait and see," or drastically underestimate the consequences of the event, you're probably going to be out of luck. Decisive action won't guarantee you get what you need, but it will help.

#3. Have a game plan:

Given the limited window of opportunity, you need to have a plan of action already in place. You won't have time to research options, search for a good price or decide if you need item A or item B more. Spend a few minutes, think through "last minute" items that you would want and write out a prioritized list. In good times,  work your way down that list and acquire the most important items beforehand. Ideally, you'll be able to acquire most or all of the critical items well before any kind of panic. But, if you find yourself in the midst of a run on the market, you'll at least have a list with some forethought behind it to work from.

#4. The obvious items will be first to go:

The panic first hit the most obvious - AR-15s and magazines - and then spread from there. And, people hit the big name dealers first, wiping out their inventories before moving elsewhere. In a disaster, you can expect the obvious survival items will be the first to disappear from shelves - generators, canned goods, guns, ammo, flashlights and batteries, etc. And, Wal-Mart and Home Depot will get swarmed before the corner store or the snooty organic grocery store.

#5. Profiteering will be rampant:

Markups of 200% to 300% seem to be run of the mill in the current panic, and I would expect them to be worse during a wide scale collapse. Gas prices? How about a bag of rice? A bulk pack of AAs? You think you'll be able to find fair prices on the private market, when the shelves have been cleared, the tanks have run dry and the guy down the street has five gallons of gas up for trade? Many will try to cash in on the disaster -- you can count on it.

Preparing on $40 a Week: Last Week & Index!

It's over (for now!)

This has been a fun series to write, and it's actually helped pull me buckle down and fill in a couple gaps in my preps, too. This is our last week of the series - if you've been following along, you've made it to the end!

This final week is pretty simple. Take $40 in cash and add it to your bug out bag (or, if you're disciplined, a back corner of your wallet). $40 isn't much, but it'll fill up a tank of gas, pay for a cab, buy a week worth of cheap food, and so on. It's also the start of an emergency savings - add more funds to it as you can, and don't spend it unless there's a real emergency.

If you've been following week-to-week, you should have some money in the "bank" - around $15. I'd recommend spending that money on a quality knife sharpener...I'm partial to this model - the Eze-Lap brass sharpener. Good for getting a basic edge going and then strop to get a finer edge as needed. Works pretty well and the all-metal construction will last you through years of hard use.

If you've missed a week here or there, here's the whole list of posts. You can also see them by clicking on the "$40 a week" label at the bottom of the post.

1. Everyday Carry Knife
2. Everyday Carry Light
3. Bugout Backpack - they've jacked the price up a bit on these, but still a good deal!
4. Survival Knife
5. Fire Gear & Container
6. Sleeping Bag
7. Shelter
8. Water Filter
9. Budget Individual First Aid Kit
10. Protective Gear
11. Chopper/large cutting tool
12. Bug Out Food
13. Toiletry Kit & Odds n' Ends
14. Headlamp
15. Food Storage Week 1
16. Food Storage Week 2
17. Food Storage Week 3 & Barter Goods
18. Start emergency savings

Yep, your total spend will be around $720 when you total it all up - the price of an entry level AR-15 or a decent long-weekend vacation. Nothing to sneeze at. But, it's gear that will last you a long while, and it's stuff that you can put to use every day, not just leave sitting in a closet/trunk/garage.

The preps we put together are by no means exhaustive, but they're a dang good foundation. And, if you want, continuing regular $40 investments in preps quickly adds up - food, water, fuel, savings, etc. Just keep at it!

Thanks again for following along with this series - this was the first time I've done something this extensive & weekly on T-Blog, and it was, I think, a big success. This certainly is not the last you'll hear of the $40 a week concept or budget minded prepping in general. Stay tuned!

Prepping on $40 a Week: Food Storage Week 2

Tactical beans.

Last week, we recommended picking up a case of white rice, and a few dollars worth of extra canned goods. This week, we're going to complete the traditional rice & beans food storage by adding some beans to our pantry.

Beans come in dried and canned variety. Dried are a lot cheaper, but the prep work is intensive - soaking and then cooking takes 45 minutes to 90 minutes. That's a lot of time, and it's a lot of fuel. If you've got say a woodstove and plenty of wood, not such a big deal. If you're cooking off of a camp stove with a limited supply of propane, it becomes a bigger deal quickly.

Canned beans are a bit pricier, but they are really convenient and18 make using up your beans much easier. Open can, add to dish. We add them to soups, chilis, serve them as a side dish and mash 'em up for refried beans.

We store black and pinto beans. I generally like varieties that come with some kind of seasoning out of the can - they're usually pretty tastey and don't require much extra work to make 'em into a good dish. I wouldn't be afraid to mix up your bean variety - throw in some baked beans, chilis, etc.

Cans cost about .69 to $1.29 or so. Look out for sales and buy cheap brands. If they do have seasoning, I'd try out a can of two before clearing the shelves.

Beans are loaded with protein and fiber, and pretty dense calorically, too. One 10-oz can of black beans, as an example, will have around 420 calories, 18 grams of fiber, 24 grams of protein.

Since we're gunning for a month worth of food for a single person, go ahead and pick up around 30 cans of the beans of your choice. So, depening on the brand and price you'll pay, you're looking at $20 to $30.

Rice and beans have zippo in the way of fats, so you'll want to add some when you cook 'em up. Olive oil is what is usually called for in recipes, and most people already have some in their pantry. If you're low on it, pick up a bottle to keep in reserve. Other oils will do in a pinch as well. Oils need to be rotated around once a year, so it doesn't make sense for most people to stock up a huge quantity.

If you've got extra money left in your $40, go ahead and spend it on some additional canned goods/shelf stable food, to help add some variety and supplement the standy-by rice n' beans. Ramen/cup-o-noodles might not be a great health choice, but they're cheap and they're food. Some bulk quick oats or bisquik can give you a change of pace for breakfasts. Cans of meat, soups, stews, peppers and tomatoes can add some variety, too. If your spice cupboard is lacking, maybe make a few additions - salt, pepper, bullion cubes, bulk spices and sugars are cheap and one can do a lot with 'em.

Our case of rice and a can of beans a day will stretch us over that month that we're looking for - it's  approximately 66,000 calories, or a healthy 33 days worth of 2000 calories a day. Add that onto whatever food you already have at home, plus the supplemental food you've bought this week and last, plus the 3 days of food in your bug out bag, and you're sitting fairly good. In the CONUS, I don't know of anyone in recent history who has been unable to access outisde food for over a month, so it is a pretty good baseline.

Next week, we'll finish off the low-budget one month food supply and move into the last portion, barter goods! Stay tuned. It's been a fun ride and we're almost done.

Public Service Announcement: Premade 72 hour kits are Crap

I wanted to throw this public service announcement out there for any newbies: pre-made 72-hour kits and bug out bags are, almost universally, complete and utter crap.

Why?

They are a bundle of cheap, made in the least-skilled factories in China stuff, with a huge markup slapped onto 'em. Photos might look ok, but trust me -- flimsy materials, shoddy construction and all around crappiness abound. Contents will be broken on arrival, break after their first use and just generally fall apart on you.

Really, you say?

Really. The makers of these kits find the absolute lowest costs junk, bundle it together and call it some variety of survival kit. We're talking stuff that's so crappy they'd have a hard time selling it in a dollar store. It's a borderline scam.

These kits prey on two traits that most of us have: laziness and cheapness.

Laziness because, hey, you buy 'em once and you're done, right? 

Cheapness because, hey, you can get a kit for under $100. You'll probably never use any of this stuff, so why invest a big chunk of change into this stuff.

Don't do it.

What's your baseline for preps?

What time baseline do you use (or are working towards) for your preps? Three days? A week? Two weeks? A month? Six months? Three years?

Food, water and other consumables. What's the minimum that you are comfortable with?

If someone was new to the whole disaster/end of times preparation thing, what time horizon would you recommend for them?

My personal baseline is around a month for food and two weeks for water (plus means to acquire & clean more). More is of course better, and we certainly have more stocked up, but a month will outlast most troubles. Less and I start to get an uneasy feeling...

For newbies, I recommend starting with two weeks and going from there. Very doable, even in a small apartment. More "getting started" recommendations right here.

How about you guys? What's your personal baseline, what do you recommend to others?

Prepping on $40 a Week: Choppers!

When we chose our budget survival knife I mentioned that we'd be picking up several tools instead of trying to use a big, do it all Rambo knife. When you try to have one tool that does it all, you end up with compromised performance. A fixed blade knife can do a lot, but it can't do everything, and it can't do everything well. So, we'll be adding a bigger tool for serious cutting/chopping work to our budget survival kit.

Instead of recommending a specific tool, I'm going to run through several excellent choices that fall within our $40 price range. This tool choice is more dependent on your area of operations--where you live. Someone who lives in an urban center will have different needs then someone who lives in the middle of a forest, and someone who lives in the desert or swamp will again have different needs.

Prepping on $40 a Week: Protective Gear

Things like gloves, hearing protection, glasses, and so on are often overlooked when packing a survival kit. Good luck surviving with an eye fragged by flying debris or if your hands get shredded falling on broken glass. Protecting your body from the omnipresent dangers post-disaster is a pretty big deal, so don't slack on it.

We're going to be adding a good pair of work gloves, eye protection, ear plugs, an N95 mask and a bandanna to our budget kit this week.

The gloves I have used for several years now are original Mechanix gloves. They are not as hardcore/armored as many tactical gloves on the market, but they provide some decent protection while retaining dexterity. They are also quite affordable. Mine are the original black/white pattern, but I would go with the new black/black or Coyote color patterns if buying new. Amazon has 'em for $15.99, and Lowe's hardware also carries a pretty decent selection of them.

Prepping on $40 a week: Budget IFAK

Contents of an IFAK - clockwise from the top: NPA, TK4 tourniquet in the middle, combat gauze, gloves, H&H gauze
and an Isreali bandage.

Tactical Combat Casualty Care has been pivotal in reducing preventable deaths in combat. A central part of TCCC is the individual first aid kit (IFAK). An IFAK is not a boo boo kit full of bandaids and cough drops. Instead, it contains critical equipment for addressing preventable death from wounds sustained in combat.

For a survivor, having these same supplies and the knowledge on how to use 'em can be a life saver.

You can buy very nice and capable IFAKs, premade and ready to go. But, they will run you around a hundred bucks, outside our budget. Never fear, you can put together a similar kit for within our $40 budget--yep, really.

How? We'll walk you through it - click below!